The year 2025 in the Western world began with bold statements from the newly elected U.S. President, Donald Trump, who suggested that the United States take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland to fortify their economic security [1].

The reasons behind Trump’s interest in these two territories, however, are quite different. In the case of Greenland, they trace back to a common factor: global warming.

The idea of purchasing Greenland is not new in Trump’s rhetoric. Back in 2019, he proposed buying the territory, an idea reminiscent of the 1867 purchase of Alaska by the U.S. from Russia [2].

Although geographically close to Canada, Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It has self-governance and autonomy over legislation, judiciary, and natural resources, while Denmark retains control of finance, foreign policy, and military defense. In 2021 Greenland was included as an Overseas Country and Territory (OCT) associated with the European Union through Denmark in the EU’s “Global Gateway” strategy for sustainability, receiving 225 million euros over six years (2021–2027) from Brussels to support sustainable development, green transition, and education [3].

On the other hand, the Greenland premier, Múte Egede, reaffirmed the territory’s growing role on the international stage and expressed a desire for greater autonomy from Copenhagen. Indeed, Greenland is becoming increasingly strategic due to its vast reserves of fossil fuels and raw materials hidden beneath the ice and permafrost and its key position as a gateway to the Arctic [2].

In addition to oil and gas, Greenland’s abundant raw materials for green technology are drawing global attention. The island holds 25 of the 34 critical materials essential for the green transition [4].

The rapid melting of Greenland’s massive glaciers is creating new opportunities for oil drilling — despite the government halting exploration licenses in 2021 — and for mining crucial minerals [5].

Greenland’s underground is rich in metals vital to the green transition, including Rare Earth Elements (REEs). According to reports by USGS (2020) and MiMA (2015), Greenland holds between 1.5 and 38.5 million tonnes of REEs, ranking it second globally after China. But REEs are not the only valuable resources hidden beneath Greenland’s ice. Other metals, such as iron, lead, zinc, copper, and nickel, are already being extracted in significant quantities by companies from China, Australia, the U.S., and the U.K. [2].

Global warming is also creating new shipping routes, providing alternatives to the Suez Canal through the Arctic that shorten the journey from Western Europe to East Asia. As a result, China is pushing to increase its influence in this region. In November 2024, a collaboration with Russia started to try to develop new Arctic shipping routes, which, due to melting ice, could become easier to access than existing routes [5].

Currently, active routes include the Northern Sea Route (within Russian waters) and the Northwest Passage (through Alaskan and Canadian waters, near Greenland’s border) [6]. Also, the Transpolar Sea Route, which crosses the North Pole, remains mostly unused due to ice depth but could become strategic in the future for its shorter path and location in largely international waters [7].

Figure 1: Active sea routes crossing the Arctic. Author, 2025.

Greenland has a vested interest in the development of the Northwest Passage (now the most used way is the Northern Sea Route), aiming to become a major supplier of metals for the Green Transition. Eastern countries are keenly interested in this project; China already owns some extraction sites and, in 2016 proposed building two airports in Greenland, although Denmark ultimately financed the infrastructure [8]. Western countries are closely monitoring this, aiming to limit Eastern influence: the U.S. has some extraction sites as well as a military base on Greenlandic soil, and Denmark uses its sovereignty to assert influence in the Arctic political scene [2].

Greenland stands at the heart of Arctic geopolitics. Its resources and strategic location are critical for the green transition and new trade routes, but these opportunities come with the unpredictable costs of global warming. Ultimately, Greenland’s future is deeply tied to the climate crisis, making it an essential actor in addressing environmental and geopolitical challenges.

References