The natural gas landscape is more complex than that of oil but equally delicate. Only 4% of Europe’s gas comes from Gulf countries. The largest shares come from Norway (30%), the United States (26%), and Russia (13%), at least until the end of 2027, when Russian contracts expire [11]. Additionally, the share of energy produced from renewable sources has increased. In 2021, only 36% of energy came from green sources; today, that figure has reached 50% [12].

Since EU Member States have vastly different energy policies, speaking of Europe as a single entity would be a mistake. Countries like Denmark, Austria, and Portugal rely heavily on solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, which account for 92%, 83%, and 82% of their energy needs, respectively [6]. In contrast, Malta, Poland, and Ireland still rely heavily on fossil fuels, with coal and gas covering 85%, 69%, and 53% of their energy consumption, respectively [13].

Gas imports are also managed independently by each country, both in terms of quantity and suppliers. Middle Eastern countries, in particular, supply gas to Italy, Belgium, and Poland, making these states among the most exposed to the current energy crisis [11].

Can European States achieve energy independence while honoring the Green Deal?

Solar and wind energy cannot be used as tools of geopolitical pressure. The model Europe should follow to ensure energy security could be the one proposed by Spain, which has doubled its renewable energy production since 2019 [14]. While sun and wind cannot be taxed, the metals needed to build photovoltaic and wind power plants could still be used as political leverage. It is therefore likely that fossil fuels will remain a pillar of European energy production in the short term, particularly coal, which Italy and Germany still use as a last resort during energy crises [15-16].

As in 2022, nuclear energy is making a comeback. Ursula von der Leyen called the move away from nuclear power a “strategic mistake“, emphasizing that the EU will reinvest in this sector in the near future [17]. There are no longer doubts among experts about the safety of new-generation nuclear plants [18-19], and since 2021, nuclear energy has been included in the EU taxonomy for the Green Deal, further legitimizing this potential choice for Europe.

However, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, investment alone may not be enough; it may be necessary to rethink the entire nuclear energy supply chain. Currently, France is the only European country with actual construction capacity, but its progress is slow and unpromising: the only plant under construction, Hinkley Point C in England, is over five years behind schedule and has already exceeded its initial budget by more than €5 billion [17].

In an increasingly unstable market, driven by an equally uncertain global situation, European leaders have already begun negotiations to secure the necessary supplies of crude oil and gas. The immediate priority is to “patch things up” in the very short term, but it is also essential to plan for the more distant future.

At this moment, the possibility of a further shift toward sustainability coincides with energy independence: what if we decided to take this path?

Cover and preview photo: Cargo ship at sunset. Photo by Ian Simmonds on Unsplash.